Load Shedding Is Over — Why Solar Is Still the Smart Choice in 2026

Why Load Shedding Ended

Load shedding eased substantially through 2024 and effectively stopped in the second half of 2024, following improvements in Eskom's generation fleet. Key factors included better maintenance execution on coal power stations, extended run time on some units, and the addition of renewables and gas generation to the mix. The government also reduced administrative barriers to independent power production, allowing faster addition of distributed and utility scale capacity.

South Africa has added over 5,800 MW of rooftop solar since 2022. This distributed generation has meaningfully reduced the peak demand pressure on Eskom's grid, contributing to the load shedding reduction. Wind and utility scale solar additions have also helped. The grid is in a better position than it was in 2023 and 2024.

But "better" does not mean "solved." South Africa's Eskom fleet is aging. Medupi and Kusile, the two large coal plants built to solve the crisis, have had persistent technical problems. As old coal stations retire in the 2026 to 2030 period, new renewable capacity needs to fill the gap. The electricity system remains in a transition phase where the risk of future supply stress is real, even if the immediate crisis has passed.

The Financial Case Does Not Depend on Load Shedding

This is the most important argument for South African EPCs to internalise and present to clients. The financial case for solar in South Africa in 2026 stands entirely on cost savings. It does not need load shedding as a supporting argument.

At a municipal tariff of R3.20/kWh and a 100 kW commercial system generating 150,000 kWh per year, the annual saving is R480,000. At an Eskom approved escalation trajectory of 8% per year, that saving grows to R518,400 in year 2, R559,872 in year 3, and cumulates to over R6 million over 10 years. The system installation cost is approximately R1.2 million. Simple payback on year one savings is 2.5 years. On a 10-year cumulative basis, the return is approximately 5x the initial investment. That is a strong financial case with no load shedding assumption required.

Why Future Supply Risk Remains Real

South Africa's energy analysts have been consistent on one point: the improvement in 2024 and 2025 is structural progress, not a solved problem. NERSA and independent analysts including Wood Mackenzie have noted that retiring coal capacity creates a supply gap from 2026 to 2030 that new renewable additions must fill on time to avoid a return to periodic outages.

Several risks remain active. First, aging coal plant reliability: Eskom's Koeberg nuclear station in the Western Cape is operating near its original design life. Any major unplanned outage at a large baseload station creates immediate system stress. Second, the new capacity pipeline: utility scale wind and solar projects take 3 to 5 years from bid award to commissioning. Projects awarded today will only contribute from 2028 at the earliest. Third, demand growth: South Africa's industrial demand is starting to recover, and EV charging and data center growth will add to grid load over the next few years.

None of this means load shedding is certain to return. But a business making a 25 year investment in a property should price this risk into the decision. A solar installation with battery backup provides both cost savings and supply security insurance. The insurance premium is the cost of the battery, and the payout is avoiding operational disruption during any future outages.

How to Reframe the Conversation

When a South African client says "but load shedding is over, do I still need solar," the response should be three things: First, the savings argument stands independently of load shedding. Present the rand savings calculation. Second, tariffs will keep rising regardless of supply security, and solar locks in zero cost generation for 25 years. Third, supply risk has not been eliminated, only reduced. Solar with storage is an insurance policy against future disruption, and the premium is affordable given the financial return.

For clients who are firmly convinced load shedding is over and do not want to pay for batteries, sell them solar without storage. The cost savings case holds. Add the battery conversation when load shedding returns, or when Time of Use tariffs make battery economics compelling on their own.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q1. Is load shedding really over or just paused?

The honest answer from energy analysts is: paused, with meaningful risk of recurrence. South Africa has gone over 300 days without scheduled load shedding, which is the longest uninterrupted period since the crisis began in earnest in 2018. The improvement is real and reflects genuine progress in Eskom's operations and the addition of distributed generation. However, Eskom still operates aging coal plants that require careful management, and several coal stations are scheduled to retire before their replacement capacity is fully commissioned. Capacity analysts including Wood Mackenzie project that by 2027 to 2028, the gap between retiring coal and commissioned renewables creates supply risk again. The system is better but not fully resolved.

Q2. Does adding solar increase a South African property's value?

Yes, meaningfully so in the current market. The South African property market shifted significantly during the load shedding crisis, with solar panels becoming a standard feature that buyers actively seek and are willing to pay a premium for. Pam Golding and other estate agents have documented that homes with solar and battery backup achieve sale prices 3 to 8% higher than equivalent homes without, depending on location and system size. Even with load shedding reduced, the preference for energy secure properties has persisted. For investment property owners, solar is now a feature that reduces vacancy and increases rental yields as tenants actively seek solar enabled rentals.

Sources

• Eskom — eskom.co.za — Generation fleet status, capacity outlook, aging infrastructure reports
• NERSA — nersa.org.za — Multi-year price determination, capacity outlook references
• BusinessLive — businesslive.co.za — South Africa 300 days without load shedding, analyst commentary on future risk
• Pam Golding Properties — pamgolding.co.za — Solar impact on South African property values, buyer preference data